5G: The Book

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5G reports

$25,000 5G Cells Quantity 200,000. Confirmed Twice!

China Mobile has ordered 300,000 5G base stations at an average price of 160,000 yuan, about US$23,000. China Unicom is paying 160,000 yuan for the 250,000 towers it and China Telecom are upgrading. Including installation and everything else, the total cost is about US$50,000…

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China pivots to 4G for IoT, not finding market for 5G NB-IoT. Activision Blizzard revenues Q1 up almost a half-billion as gaming booms. Mobile device manufacturers are expected to provide new 5G models to lower price points as the year progresses, and demand for…

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Multi-cloud and hybrid cloud are crucial trends in data centers, Equinix is demonstrating, per Nick Sel Deo of Moffett. GSMA has reduced its 5G 2020 subscriber estimate to 150 million, citing low phone sales. GSMA has some of the best analysts, but I am…

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5G 2020-2025: Surprise Free, Low & High Estimates

I have no experience writing fiction, but 5G estimates even a year out are speculative. Four and five year forecasts are guaranteed inaccurate because 5G is new and changing rapidly. Yet people building networks need to think years ahead. Reporters love the headline. The…

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2020-2021: Networks Doing Fine in the Time of Corona

Amazingly, there have been close to zero reports of additional traffic causing important problems for people at home. The networks are successfully handling 20-50% traffic increases while still staying fast enough for almost all practical purposes. Traffic has now plateaued and speeds improving weekly….

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5G 2020 Country Review

In August 2019, early data from Korea and China convinced me that predictions for 5G in 2019 were much too low. In September, I published 5G 2020 Predictions: Surprising and surprise free 195-205 million, Low 175M, High 230M, also much higher than others. China…

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Millimeter Wave: What’s Goin’ On

Verizon has the only substantial mmWave network on the planet. They may have already covered 5% of the US, but most is not yet turned on. The company refuses to release any figures other than 30 million passed one day, about a quarter of…

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Fiber: What’s Goin’ On

Telcos are adding fiber at a rapid pace. It makes money. AT&T’s CFO John Stephens explains that the fiber delivers three sources of revenue. Fiber works. I can use it three times. I can use it for my consumers. I can use it for…

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Facts, not Hype

Typical real-world latency is 30 ms, no better than good 4G. VerizonEdge networks cut latency to 10-20 ms in 4G or 5G Fiber latency is usually lower. Telus Low-band “5G” today is no faster than 4G 6 independent tests Mid-band 5G’s speed is 100-300…

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230M 5G in 2020. The High Scenario

Update April 15: I’ve reduced my 2020 high estimate from 265 million to 230 million. People need a new phone for 5G and phone sales are crashing. Korean growth fell to half the August 2019 rate. The Chinese telcos recommitted to 150 million subs…

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The Low Scenario: Perhaps Only 170M

12/3 Updated from 160M to 170M based on the Chinese decision to sell 150M subs. ** If people realize that 5G has few if any practical advantages, they could hold off buying it. If TSMC can’t raise production sufficiently, that would be a major…

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