One of the best ways to understand telecom

I’ve been covering the industry since 1999, always trying to get closer to the truth. Dave Burstein

@analysisbranch is one of the best ways to follow what’s going on.

Our very affordable, customized teleinformed service is the best way for your company to stay aware of what’s important to you.

5G: Facts and the Future Analyzed

Perhaps the most comprehensive analysis report on 5G. What’s happening around the globe in 2020 and the next 5 years. 60 pages No hype. loaded with data and projections.
Free under a Creative Commons license at least until the book is finished.  Link 

2020: 210 million subscribers likely. (Low 175M, High 230M)
China is deeply committed to 150 million subscribers. MIIT had the telcos drop the price from US$18 to $13 in June. 5 brands offer decent phones from $228 to $285 (6.5′, three cameras, processors with AI, etc.) 15M 5G phones sold in April and the total is increasing. China is 70% of the market in 2019, 2020, and probably 2021. Likely in the next years: 2021 500,000,000. 2022 950,000,000. 2023 1,550,000,000. 2024 2,250,000,000. 2025 3,050,000,000

Consulting

When you need analysis, research, or project management, consider us. A different point of view on your plans. A perspective that’s informed by very wide experience. Call me. Dave Burstein daveb@dslprime.com 347-603-6442

We have little overhead so our fees are usually somewhat lower.

Teleinformed customized

The best, fastest way for you and your team to learn the latest. An informed expert on call.

All based on what you tell me are your key interests. IoT in 5G? Edge in the Data Center? Germany competition? Spectrum sharing? Price of phones? or …
I spend untold hours researching every week, with help from Google translate. Guaranteed to find useful information easily missed.

  • A monthly customized news presentation, probably via Zoom, with plenty of time for your questions.
  • Up to four calls looking for specific information, such as the history of a new customer or a country’s regulatory policy. Including a reasonable amount of research.
  • Brainstorms on your new ideas, combined with reality checks. Any reasonable amount of time.
  • Regular emails when I discover news important to you. E.g. The customer of a client has a new initiative that would be natural for sales follow-up.

Targeted package, $300/month, paid quarterly. Satisfaction guaranteed or money refunded.

Thinking

Hottges
5G is not raising Canadian capex

Craig Moffett warns about “the fallacy of marginal
cost advantage. … It’s not true with telecom.” Remarkable technical advances have resulted in more capacity almost everywhere than the telcos can sell. Result: the low costs of Verizon’s mmWave or Rakuten’s new network are useless unless buyers can be found. Verizon’s Hans Vestberg is learning that the hard way.

5G slower than 4G in the US Finally, Data: US 5G slower than Canada’s 4G. Believe it and Germany.

A huge question for Edge inside telco networks is whether the web giants will take over. It’s now clear most Edge is a hybrid cloud and hybrid clouds need huge teams of engineers to manage. Many telcos are deciding to hand over to the web giants and take a (modest) percentage. Even the telcos building their own, like Verizon and DT, will find profits hard to come by, Pal Zarandy notes. “Buyers like Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook with massive bargaining power would bargain away MNOs’ margins. Near zero marginal cost network economics => near zero margin to be made on wholesale access.” He’s talking about other services than Edge but the point holds. Will the telcos be able to cash in on their terminating monopoly? To be seen.

Keith Bradsher in the NY Times dramatically makes clear the effectiveness of industrial policy support in his article on the growth of Chinese medical supply manufacturers. Indian telecom production is booming under protectionism. Ericsson & Nokia benefit from over a $billion in EU R&D in 5G.
The US chip industry has come together to demand $30 billion. Senator Mark Warner wants $billion for 5G in the U.S. From cruises to autos to pharma, business leaders decry government support except for their own companies.
US policy for 40 years has been to stimulate the economy with tax cuts, although only a small fraction of the money goes to expanding investment. The money would be far more effectively used for investment in strategic industries. That works whether the government is capitalist or communist – so long as it’s not captured by industry or totally corrupt.

“The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ, moves on.”  If you’d like America’s top China trade rep to speak for you instead, Jeffrey Gerrish has abandoned Trump and returned to Skadden Arps. Million dollar retainers expected.

“What jumped out to me was how users’ current thoughts are mostly around smartphones, IoT/sensor data collection, display boards, CCTV and so on. Whereas MNOs are focused on automation, robots, AR/VR and the ‘sexier’ applications.” Dean Bubley writes, adding that all the likely apps work fine on 4G. Telefonica CTO Enrique Blanco also wonders whether 5G is actually needed for IoT. (Hint: not.)

Some people still think 5G is expensive to build. AT&T & Orange are cutting capex while building 5G. Deutsche Telecom is keeping it flat. 5G does not cost more than 4G.

Tim Hottges, CEO of DT, is the Great Welsher. TMO wants out of merger agreements to serve 93% of Californians with carefully tested 300 Mbps by 2024 and to cut 1,000 jobs.

Telcos’ greatest problem: demand growth is slowing while technology is increasing at a ferocious rate. Hans Vestberg of Verizon claims, and I can confirm, that cost per bit is going down at 40%/year. Traffic growth is now typically 25%-35%. Every investor implicitly acknowledges this: the number of subscribers is crucial to the stock price response after quarterly earnings.
That’s the reason why millimeter wave, the real 5G, finds so little demand. When the enormous capacity of mid-band spectrum became clear, carriers realized they would have more capacity than they could sell without mmWave.
The primary factor in telco profitability is how close the carriers come to cartel-like pricing. CEOs talk about “rational pricing,” a true description that should be a signal to antitrust enforcers. When carriers have unused capacity in most locations, the natural act is to break from the (unspoken) cartel.

For a good understanding of AI today, read Architects of Intelligence: The truth about AI from the people building it by Martin Ford. To understand China, the U.S. and what’s going on, Kai-Fu Lee’s AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order is deeply informed but easy to read. AI/Machine Learning has limits. It is great for translation, video surveillance, and speech recognition. It’s been disappointing, so far, in tasks like network optimization. (That could change)

Multi-cloud and hybrid cloud are crucial trends in data centers, Equinix is demonstrating, per Nick Del Deo of Moffett.

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5X Advance for Africa with Massive MIMO, Spectrum


In 2014, Stanford Professor Paulraj told me MU MIMO would be the most effective way to deliver the capacity Africa needed. In 2016, the first Massive MIMO systems were deployed by Softbank Japan and China Mobile. The results were excellent. Softbank reported “up to…

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Consulting


When you need analysis, research, or project management, consider us. A different point of view on your plans. A perspective that’s informed by very wide experience. Call me. Dave Burstein daveb@dslprime.com 347-603-6442 We have little overhead so our fees are usually somewhat lower….

Teleinformed


Teleinformed customized The best, fastest way for you and your team to learn the latest. An informed expert on call. All based on what you tell me are your key interests. IoT in 5G? Edge in the Data Center? Germany competition? Spectrum sharing? Price…

Continue reading

One of the best ways to understand telecom


I’ve been covering the industry since 1999, always trying to get closer to the truth. Dave Burstein @analysisbranch is one of the best ways to follow what’s going on. Our very affordable, customized teleinformed service is the best way for your company to stay…

Continue reading

5G: Facts and the Future Analyzed


Perhaps the most comprehensive analysis report on 5G. What’s happening around the globe in 2020 and the next 5 years. 60 pages No hype. loaded with data and projections. Free under a Creative Commons license at least until the book is finished.  Link  2020:…

Continue reading

5G: The Facts and the Future


A global analysis from 2020 to 2025, with estimates that cut through the hype. “I will tell you, there’s a lot of units coming.” Liam Griffin, CEO Skyworks 5G is not going to change the world, no matter what you hear from Xi Jinping,…

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