Coronavirus Matters – But Numbers are Uncertain

The best epidemiologists are not sure when the pandemic will be controlled. That makes it impossible to provide an accurate estimate of the effect on telecom and 5G.

If production gets back to normal by the end of Feb, the natural drop in 5G subs will be 10-15 million. I’ve reduced my “surprise-free” 2020 projection from 210 million to 195 million because of corona and the slowdown in December in Korea. I have too little data to be confident.

China has a large economic stimulus planned. If 5G is included, the lost ground could be recovered. World leadership in 5G is important in China and it may choose to get back on track.

If production limits extend past February, the impact will likely be large. Supply chains could break and the world could go into recession. The slowdown in 5G – and much else – could be severe.

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