One of the best ways to understand telecom
I’ve been covering the industry since 1999, always trying to get closer to the truth. I’ve learned from hundreds of the best. If you’re trying to understand telecom, I’m always happy to exchange ideas. If you’re in the industry and need answers, ask me. Our consulting rates are fair and if I can’t help you I’ll say so. Dave Burstein daveb@dslprime.com
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5G: The Facts and the Future 2021 is almost ready. It’s free. 60 pages, loaded with data and projections. No hype. Worldwide coverage. tl;dr unless you’re really interested in wireless.
Teleinformed — Expert on call
The best, fastest way for you and your team to learn the latest. An informed expert on call when you need answers or an outside opinion. A news service customized by hand for what you need.
All based on what you tell me are your key interests. IoT in 5G? Edge in the Data Center? Germany competition? Spectrum sharing? Price of phones? Is Open-RAN ready? or …
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Open RAN Experts: Not quite ready for prime time
Open RAN works, but the strongest supporters are clear it has a way to go. CTO Tareq Amin of Rakuten, with the most advanced deployment in the world, had to spend “hundreds of millions” on custom chips to get the performance he needs. My unofficial numbers are custom chip cost wiped out all the…
Continue readingAnalysis Branch: 100 million 5G subscribers in August, 84M+ in Q2, prove 5G is real.
210 million 5G yearend as phone prices fall to US$199-260. New York August 31, 2020 Contact: Dave Burstein, 347-603-6442 daveb@dslprime.com 5G use is exploding. At the end of June, China had ~67 million 5G phones, Korea 7.35 million, the U.S. 4-5 million, and the rest of the world perhaps 4 million. 5G fixed wireless…
Continue reading$Hundreds of millions in extra chip costs prove Open-RAN not quite ready
Tareq Amin’s Rakuten is the most advanced Open-RAN and virtual carrier on earth. But he wasn’t able to get there using standard parts and equipment. Rakuten pays hundreds of millions of dollars in non-recurring engineering fees to chipmakers like Qualcomm to obtain the components it needs. …We cannot find the right material at the right…
Continue readingPrimary: Cost per bit of wireless is falling at a ferocious rate
Even experts are skeptical that Verizon’s cost per bit is falling at 40-50% per year, but I’ve confirmed it to my satisfaction. Three well-established datapoints: Traffic was growing at 60-80% per year and only now is growth falling below 40% Capex has been flat to down Speeds have been going up consistently and congestion…
Continue readingMoffett’s Remarkable Insight: Low marginal cost means nothing if you can’t sell it
The low cost per bit of 5G means almost nothing if you can’t sell the bandwidth. I’ve been warning for at least five years that telcos’ biggest problem is overcapacity. In 95% of locations, most of the time, major telcos have excess capacity. The tech is moving incredibly fast, driving cost per bit down…
Continue readingAT&T, Ciena,…”5G’s attractive, transformative services will likely introduce threat vectors not yet seen or experienced”
5G Americas has a new paper reflecting the almost universal opinion among security experts that 5G has important vulnerabilities that can’t be ignored. 5G systems are perhaps an order of magnitude more complicated than 4G and correspondingly hard to protect. They are also massively distributed, from your home IoT up. That huge attack surface…
Continue readingChina is > 70% of 5G as subs pass 80M
At the end of June 2020, China had ~65 million 5G phones, Korea 7.5 million, the U.S. 5-6 million, and the rest of the world perhaps 4 million. In June 2019, Minister Miao Wei told the giant Chinese telcos “accelerate” and the results are extraordinary. China has upgraded 415,000 base stations and are adding…
Continue readingUS Q2 5G 4-5 million. Year-end 15-25 million
According to Ken Hyers at Strategy Analytics, 3.4 million 5G phones shipped in Q1 in the U.S. and 2.7 million in Q2. Stores were closed and promotion limited. Some of the 6.1 million shipped were in transit or store inventory, hence the total of 5-6 million plus (modest) carryover from 2019. Update August 10…
Continue readingJune 2020 H1 5G subscribers 84M (82M-92M)
210 million 5G yearend as phone prices fall to US$199-260. 5G use is exploding. At the end of June, China had ~65 million 5G phones, Korea 7.35 million, the U.S. 4-5 million, and the rest of the world perhaps 4 million. 5G fixed wireless added perhaps 4 million more. As Chinese phone prices (US$199-260)…
Continue reading5X Advance for Africa with Massive MIMO, Spectrum
In 2014, Stanford Professor Paulraj told me MU MIMO would be the most effective way to deliver the capacity Africa needed. In 2016, the first Massive MIMO systems were deployed by Softbank Japan and China Mobile. The results were excellent. Softbank reported “up to a 10X improvement.” Huang Yuhong of China Mobile told me…
Continue readingConsulting
When you need analysis, research, or project management, consider us. A different point of view on your plans. A perspective that’s informed by very wide experience. Call me. Dave Burstein daveb@dslprime.com 347-603-6442 We have little overhead so our fees are usually somewhat lower….
Continue readingTeleinformed — Expert on call
The best, fastest way for you and your team to learn the latest. An informed expert on call when you need answers or an outside opinion. A news service customized by hand for what you need. All based on what you tell me are your key interests. IoT in 5G? Edge in the Data…
Continue reading