One of the best ways to understand telecom
I’ve been covering the industry since 1999, always trying to get closer to the truth. I’ve learned from hundreds of the best. If you’re trying to understand telecom, I’m always happy to exchange ideas. If you’re in the industry and need answers, ask me. Our consulting rates are fair and if I can’t help you I’ll say so. Dave Burstein daveb@dslprime.com
Our analysis
5G: The Facts and the Future 2021 is almost ready. It’s free. 60 pages, loaded with data and projections. No hype. Worldwide coverage. tl;dr unless you’re really interested in wireless.
Teleinformed — Expert on call
The best, fastest way for you and your team to learn the latest. An informed expert on call when you need answers or an outside opinion. A news service customized by hand for what you need.
All based on what you tell me are your key interests. IoT in 5G? Edge in the Data Center? Germany competition? Spectrum sharing? Price of phones? Is Open-RAN ready? or …
I spend untold hours researching every week, with help from Google translate. Guaranteed to find useful information easily missed.
- A monthly customized news presentation, probably via Zoom, with plenty of time for your questions.
- Up to six calls looking for specific information, such as the history of a new customer or a country’s regulatory policy. Including a reasonable amount of research.
- Brainstorms on your new ideas, combined with reality checks. Any reasonable amount of time.
- Regular emails when I discover news important to you. E.g. The customer of a client has a new initiative that would be natural for sales follow-up.
Targeted package, $300/month, paid quarterly. Satisfaction guaranteed or money refunded.
Press
- 5G use is exploding. At the end of June, China had ~65 million 5G phones, Korea 7.35 million, the U.S. 4-5 million, and the rest of the world perhaps 4 million. 5
- As Chinese phone prices (US$199-260) reach the West and Apple releases the 5G iPhone, monthly growth will reach more than 20 million per month. See 5G Phones $199-260
- By August, 5G users have reached 100 million. 14 million phones shipped in China in July
- “5G still doesn’t have any use cases,” writes top Wall Street analyst Craig Moffett.
AT&T, Verizon Praying People Won’t Switch to T-Mobile’s Better 5G
The U.S. 5G market is T-Mobile’s to lose. The golden 2.5 GHz Sprint spectrum will give T-Mobile the best network in 40-60% of the U.S. over the next 4-9 months. Speeds will typically be 100-300 Mbps, occasionally higher. Verizon may have triple the speed in their millimeter wave network, but that’s only in about…
Continue reading5G: The Facts and the Future
A global analysis from 2020 to 2025, with estimates that cut through the hype. “I will tell you, there’s a lot of units coming.” Liam Griffin, CEO Skyworks 5G is not going to change the world, no matter what you hear from Xi Jinping, Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, or Angela Merkel. None of them…
Continue reading5G Flavors: mmWave is good, low & mid-band closer to 4G
Wireless has been getting better at a ferocious rate since at least 2013. Verizon calculates its cost per bit has been going down 40%-50 every year and expects that to continue. This has been true and is a good thing. “5G” has become a meaningless marketing term; most of the big advances happened in…
Continue reading210M 2020 5G Estimate Restored as Sale Prices Fall to US$200
China will almost definitely reach its 150 million 2020 target and some estimates are 180 million. 20 million 5G subs are likely in the U.S. 3.4 million 5G phones shipped in the U.S. in Q1 even though the U.S. 5G build in very small. T-Mobile is going to promote 5G strongly around August and…
Continue reading$25,000 5G Cells Quantity 200,000. Confirmed Twice!
China Mobile has ordered 300,000 5G base stations at an average price of 160,000 yuan, about US$23,000. China Unicom is paying 160,000 yuan for the 250,000 towers it and China Telecom are upgrading. Including installation and everything else, the total cost is about US$50,000 per cell. “High cost of 5G” is a myth and…
Continue readingPress
Happy to answer questions, offer background, share data and sources, and quickly provide quotes. Dave Burstein 347-603-6442 daveb@dslprime.com Analysis Branch: 80M 5G subscribers in Q2, 100M August prove 5G is real. (August 28) 5G use is exploding. At the end of June, China had ~65 million 5G phones, Korea 7.35 million, the U.S. 4-5…
Continue readingTelefonica: Traffic Down 13% as People Get Out
As Spain opens up, fixed Internet use is going down. It’s too soon to be sure of a pattern, but ultimately traffic growth should return to 20%-40% per year. Telefonica reports a 13% drop in traffic demand at 8 p.m. in the first week. Mobile demand has fallen 6%. Mobile traffic was only slightly…
Continue readingShadow CTO
The Shadow knows how to build networks. A deeper look at key choices $Hundreds of millions in extra chip costs prove Open-RAN not quite readyMoffett’s Remarkable Insight: Low marginal cost means nothing if you can’t sell itPrimary: Cost per bit of wireless is falling at a ferocious rate5X Advance for Africa with Massive MIMO,…
Continue readingAnalyzing Telecom
TRAI is demanding that all telecom gear, not just phones, move to Made in India. Turkcell’s Superbox 4G fixed wireless added 91,000 subscribers Q2. With far more 4G capacity than they can sell, telcos including Verizon are promoting 4G fixed. Canadian telcos claim 5G at 1.7 Gbps. Actually, in the spectrum they have, 300…
Continue reading5G 2020-2025: Surprise Free, Low & High Estimates
I have no experience writing fiction, but 5G estimates even a year out are speculative. Four and five year forecasts are guaranteed inaccurate because 5G is new and changing rapidly. Yet people building networks need to think years ahead. Reporters love the headlines. The year I spent researching 5G gives me some insight. Originally,…
Continue reading2020-2021: Networks Doing Fine in the Time of Corona
Amazingly, there have been close to zero reports of additional traffic causing important problems for people at home. The networks are successfully handling 20-50% traffic increases while still staying fast enough for almost all practical purposes. Traffic has now plateaued and speeds improving weekly. Median landline download speeds in 90% of U.S. cities were…
Continue readingStart Here: The Economy is Worse Than Almost Anyone Believes
2008-2009, the worst economic crisis in almost a century, saw a fall of US GDP of ~4%. This time will almost certain be worse, with many predicting a drop of ~10%. That’s uncertain, but a severe drop has already occured and 2021 also looks weak. Any analysis, including my work on 5G and telecom,…
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