One of the best ways to understand telecom
I’ve been covering the industry since 1999, always trying to get closer to the truth. I’ve learned from hundreds of the best. If you’re trying to understand telecom, I’m always happy to exchange ideas. If you’re in the industry and need answers, ask me. Our consulting rates are fair and if I can’t help you I’ll say so. Dave Burstein firstname.lastname@example.org
5G: The Facts and the Future 2021 is almost ready. It’s free. 60 pages, loaded with data and projections. No hype. Worldwide coverage. tl;dr unless you’re really interested in wireless.
Teleinformed — Expert on call
The best, fastest way for you and your team to learn the latest. An informed expert on call when you need answers or an outside opinion. A news service customized by hand for what you need.
All based on what you tell me are your key interests. IoT in 5G? Edge in the Data Center? Germany competition? Spectrum sharing? Price of phones? Is Open-RAN ready? or …
I spend untold hours researching every week, with help from Google translate. Guaranteed to find useful information easily missed.
- A monthly customized news presentation, probably via Zoom, with plenty of time for your questions.
- Up to six calls looking for specific information, such as the history of a new customer or a country’s regulatory policy. Including a reasonable amount of research.
- Brainstorms on your new ideas, combined with reality checks. Any reasonable amount of time.
- Regular emails when I discover news important to you. E.g. The customer of a client has a new initiative that would be natural for sales follow-up.
Targeted package, $300/month, paid quarterly. Satisfaction guaranteed or money refunded.
- 5G use is exploding. At the end of June, China had ~65 million 5G phones, Korea 7.35 million, the U.S. 4-5 million, and the rest of the world perhaps 4 million. 5
- As Chinese phone prices (US$199-260) reach the West and Apple releases the 5G iPhone, monthly growth will reach more than 20 million per month. See 5G Phones $199-260
- By August, 5G users have reached 100 million. 14 million phones shipped in China in July
- “5G still doesn’t have any use cases,” writes top Wall Street analyst Craig Moffett.
2008-2009, the worst economic crisis in almost a century, saw a fall of US GDP of ~4%. This time will almost certain be worse, with many predicting a drop of ~10%. That’s uncertain, but a severe drop has already occured and 2021 also looks weak. Any analysis, including my work on 5G and telecom,…Continue reading
August 11 Softbank is selling phones from Oppo and ZTE for ~$700. Plans 10K cells March 2021 and 50K March 2020 — 90% of population. Expects 60% 5G in 2023. August 2 NTT has 240K 5G subs, after 150K June 30. Goal is 2.5M March 2021 June 24 NTT invested $640 million in NEC…Continue reading
China Mobile is upgrading over 250,000 cells to 2.5 GHz, 100+ Mbps 5G in 2020. It projects a total capex expenditure for 5G of ~US$14 billion. That’s about US$56,000 per upgraded site. It will reach between 500 million and 700 million Chinese, about half the country. China Telecom and China Unicom are doing a…Continue reading
In August 2019, early data from Korea and China convinced me that predictions for 5G in 2019 were much too low. In September, I published 5G 2020 Predictions: Surprising and surprise free 195-205 million, Low 175M, High 230M, also much higher than others. China had announced 600,000 cells and 150 million subscribers for 2020…Continue reading
Corona is already the worst epidemic of the last thirty years. The best scientists in the world aren’t sure when it will be brought under control. My brother, a Professor of Emergency Medicine, is hopeful of control soon, but isn’t certain. If contained, cell phones sales will be down 40-70 million in Q1, including…Continue reading
The best epidemiologists are not sure when the pandemic will be controlled. That makes it impossible to provide an accurate estimate of the effect on telecom and 5G. If production gets back to normal by the end of Feb, the natural drop in 5G subs will be 10-15 million. I’ve reduced my “surprise-free” 2020…Continue reading
Korea added only 313,000 5G users in December, half the August total. It missed the 5 million year end 2019 goal. The 15 million projection for 5G users in Korea at the end of 2020 is now uncertain. Phone subsidies have been cut sharply from the $400-600 earlier in the year. Coverage, at over…Continue reading
The average 2019 4G download speed across 20,000 PC Mag tests in 30 Canadian cities was over 200 Mbps down. The latency was less than 30 ms. The average in Vancouver was over 300 Mbps. The majority of independent tests of 5G outside Asia are slower than 200 Mbps. Verizon reports 5G latency of…Continue reading
210M 5G in 2020 Analysis Report. 4000 words including high & low scenarios. No charge. …Continue reading
Verizon has the only substantial mmWave network on the planet. They may have already covered 5% of the US, but most is not yet turned on. The company refuses to release any figures other than 30 million passed one day, about a quarter of the US. The majority of Verizon’s “5G” will be low…Continue reading
Telcos are adding fiber at a rapid pace. It makes money. AT&T’s CFO John Stephens explains that the fiber delivers three sources of revenue. Fiber works. I can use it three times. I can use it for my consumers. I can use it for my business customers. And I can use it for my…Continue reading
Typical real-world latency is 30 ms, no better than good 4G. VerizonEdge networks cut latency to 10-20 ms in 4G or 5G Fiber latency is usually lower. Telus Low-band “5G” today is no faster than 4G 6 independent tests Mid-band 5G’s speed is 100-300 Mbps, similar to good 4G in the same spectrum. 6…Continue reading