One of the best ways to understand telecom

I’ve been covering the industry since 1999, always trying to get closer to the truth. I’ve learned from hundreds of the best. If you’re trying to understand telecom, I’m always happy to exchange ideas. If you’re in the industry and need answers, ask me. Our consulting rates are fair and if I can’t help you I’ll say so. Dave Burstein daveb@dslprime.com

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34% Implosion in China April phone sales

One month may not mean anything, but the drop in China was so forecasts need a close reexamination. Phonemakers are reducing chip orders. Oppo has reduced 2021 estimates 20%. This may just be a blip, given supply issues and Covid. But the figure from the reliable CAICT is extreme. China is 20-25% of world phone…

Neville Ray

Chasing Neville Ray: VZ & T building but will be behind until 2024-2025

T-Mobile US is building the best 5G network in the West. He’s reached 125 million with an average speed of 300 Mbps down, using the golden 2.5 GHz spectrum acquired from Sprint. Year end 2021 will be 200 million. 2023 or 2024 will be a guaranteed 100 down 5G for 300 million, 90% of the…

Alibaba twice Amazon in e-commerce. China leaves the US in the dust

Company HQ GMV 2020($ billions) Alibaba China 1,145 Amazon USA 575 JD.com China 379 Pinduoduo China 242 Shopify Canada 120 eBay USA 100 Meituan China 71 Walmart USA 64 Uber USA 58 Rakuten Japan 42 Expedia USA 37 Booking Holdings USA 35 Airbnb USA 24 Companies above 2,890 Source: UN https://unctad.org/news/global-e-commerce-jumps-267-trillion-covid-19-boosts-online-sales

Massive Apple 5G sales to push 2021 past 600 million 5G phones

Almost all estimates of 5G phone sales in 2021 are likely too low. Counterpoint reports the three bestselling phones in January were iPhone 12 models, all 5G. One analyst expects Apple to break records in 2021, selling 240-250 million phones, mostly 5G. ~80% of 5G was China until November 2020. Sales elsewhere took off with…

5G 700M China by December 2022

The trend is strong: China will likely reach 700 million actual 5G users late in 2022. Time to update forecasts; ZDNet quotes an analyst estimate of 675 million 5G in 2025. About 170 million 5G phones were sold in China, up from an unofficial 14 million in 2019. 27 million 5G phones sold in March…

SA: 2021 Smartphone sales up 8% over 2019

An iPhone “super cycle” will drive revenues to US$400 billion according to Boris Metodiev and Linda Sui of Strategy Analytics. That’s up 13% over 2020, which was down 5% from 2019. I believe over 600 million of the projected 1.4 billion sales will be 5G. 5G sales exploded in China as prices for decent 5G…

Rural 5G solved: 60 MHz @700 shared network

The China Mobile/China Broadcast network has enough bandwidth will have enormous capacity, more than enough for likely demand for many years. Zhang Yunyong of China Unicom believes duplicating that network is wasteful. He made the request at China’s major political event, the Two Sessions. China Unicom’s main 5G network is a joint build with China…Continue reading

Data: Samsung on (slowing) Moore’s Law

At Samsung, the performance improvement going from 7 nm to 5 nm may have been as little as 10%. From 7 nm to 3 nm, the projected improvement is 35%. Of course, the actual performance will wildly vary based on the design and requirements.  Anton Shilov of Anandtech has compiled the company claims for performance in…

$80B 5G Auction: AT&T & Verizon rich enough to afford it

AT&T is a $207 billion company. Verizon’s market cap is $237 billion. Each has about $20 billion in cash flow per year. $40 billion is a helluva lot of money even for companies that size. Some pundits are panicking. But Craig Moffett points out the result could be “free cash flow accretive” after tax writeoffs….Continue reading

Need to Know: 5G: 10% performance, 0 new apps

20 Gbps and 1 ms latency is possible in the lab but a fever dream in the real world. At Verizon, the median speed of 5G is the same or less than 4G. The latency is rated at 30 ms, little better than most 4G. Even on the better 5G networks, delivering 150-400 Mbps downloads,…