Thinking

Multi-cloud and hybrid cloud are crucial trends in data centers, Equinix is demonstrating, per Nick Sel Deo of Moffett.

GSMA has reduced its 5G 2020 subscriber estimate to 150 million, citing low phone sales. GSMA has some of the best analysts, but I am holding at 195-205 million. I believe China will meet its 150 million goal and low phone prices will drive demand everywhere.

Essentially every projection of 5G, including mine, just became invalid because it will be impossible to separate 4G speed “low-band 5G” from the better stuff. Deutsche Telekom and Vodafone have now jumped on this. “5G.” Others will likely follow and everything will now be “5G.” Until this week, virtually everyone outside the U.S. thought 5G was faster than 4G. Instead of building better networks, DT is just changing the definition.

Verizon CEO promised “5G mobile edge compute this year.” If it’s substantial, VZ will be first in the West to the Edge.

CEO Börje Ekholm says Ericsson is losing money on the China Mobile contract for ~25,000 5G upgrades, will make it up later. China Mobile is paying about US$25,000 per station from Ericsson, Huawei, and ZTE. Nokia has refused to match the price, a dangerous tactic when China is 70% of the 5G market in 2020 & 2021.

$400 decent Xiaomi 5G phones are now for sale at Vodafone Germany. When Xiaomi dropped the China price to $285, I put out an estimate that 210 million would buy 5G in 2020.

China has upgraded over 200,000 cells for mid-band 5G but reduced the year-end target to 500,000. The “50 million 5G contracts” is an uncertain figure which may be higher than the number of phones sold.

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