Data: Samsung on (slowing) Moore’s Law

At Samsung, the performance improvement going from 7 nm to 5 nm may have been as little as 10%. From 7 nm to 3 nm, the projected improvement is 35%. Of course, the actual performance will wildly vary based on the design and requirements.

 Anton Shilov of Anandtech has compiled the company claims for performance in the latest nodes. Samsung and TSMC are investing something like $50 billion each to continue to shrink the manufacturing process.

Intel is about two years behind. SMIC in China is 4-5 years behind. It will not be able to do better than 7 nm unless the US eases the blockade on the Dutch EUV gear or the Chinese EUV becomes available sooner than most expect.

(China catching up in EUV in 2-4 years would be almost miraculous. But China has delivered many miracles in electronics and this is a matter of national security.)

Advertised PPA Improvements of New Process Technologies
vs 10LPE
vs 7LPP
vs 7LPP
vs 7LPP
Area Reduction40%~9%<20%40%
Data from the companies via Anandtech

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