Could this be the end of cable? (God)father Malone: It’s fiber time

John Malone built the largest cableco in America, TCI. After selling that, he built Liberty Global, the largest in the world. He controls Charter, which serves 30 million cable subscribers. Now

VIRGIN MEDIA O2 ANNOUNCES 2028 FULL FIBRE UPGRADE PLAN

Full release belowm but aksi Mike Fries comments

Because it already has conduit in place for cable, Virgin is confident it will be able to upgrade 13 million homes for less than $140/home. Their chart above claims the cost of fiber is little more than the cost to upgrade to DOCSIS 4;

That’s an amazing figure compared to the $400 -1000 others are spending per home, such as Deutsche Telekom.

The $140 figure does not in the drop to the home or the required new modem, which would triple the cost for a home taking fiber. The numbers still look good.

The cost will be ~$250 million per year. Fiber is lower maintenance than coax because it has no active elements in the field. It will probably reduce operating costs by $50-100 million per year.

The projected remaining cost will be recovered if Virgin is able to net an additional 5% market share, 300-400,000 more customers (or fewer losses.) That’s a reasonable expectation; customers everywhere love fiber.

The move was also inspired by the coming massive investment in British fiber. After Goldman Sachs and others committed over $7B to fibering Britain, BT has hired thousands to extend Openreach fiber to the home to 26 million by 2026, over 85% of the country.

Without a doubt, competition is by far the best incentive for increased competition

VIRGIN MEDIA O2 ANNOUNCES 2028 FULL FIBRE UPGRADE PLAN

29 JULY 2021

Virgin Media O2 has today announced its intention to upgrade its fixed network to full fibre to the premises (FTTP) by 2028, building on its leadership position as the UK’s largest gigabit broadband provider.

The investment will bolster the operator’s long-term network strategy, fuel future connectivity innovation for consumers and businesses and create options to potentially pursue the broadband wholesale market in the UK.

With the fastest speeds at scale in the UK today, Virgin Media O2 will upgrade the cable element of its fibre-rich network and make use of cutting-edge full-fibre technology.

This technology is capable of delivering symmetrical 10Gbps download and upload speeds and beyond, with the upgrade plan covering 14.3 million cable premises, after taking into account the operator’s existing 1.2 million FTTP homes.

The value-accretive decision, backed by Virgin Media O2’s shareholders, Liberty Global and Telefónica, has been taken following recent deployment trials, a thorough analysis of alternative network scenarios and the potential opportunity to enter the fixed wholesale market.

Lutz Schüler, CEO of Virgin Media O2, commented:

Our mission is to upgrade the UK, and we are doing exactly that. This major new fibre upgrade programme will see us begin the next evolution of our network, building on the investment, firepower and leadership we already have and ensuring we’re fibre fit for the future.

Right now, we have the UK’s leading gigabit network, and this upgrade means we’ll be even stronger for the decades ahead, pursuing new opportunities and putting words into action.

In 60 days since the formation of Virgin Media O2, we have achieved a lot, but this is just the beginning. With strong foundations for growth in place, we will boost connectivity, provide greater choice and be a challenger the country can count on.

Maintaining gigabit leadership while preparing network for the future 

Through the combination of DOCSIS 3.1 cable and FTTP technology over the coming years, Virgin Media O2 will sustain its long-held speed leadership while preparing its network for the future.

The company will continue to maintain and develop its cable network during the upgrade period, which includes meeting its 2021 gigabit targets and utilising the network’s multigigabit capability to deliver speeds above 2Gbps in future.

By the end of this year, Virgin Media O2 will deliver speeds of 1.1Gbps across its entire network, meeting the Government’s stated broadband targets four years ahead of schedule. The company will also continue to expand its fibre footprint to new areas through its Project Lightning programme and is actively exploring further expansion opportunities to reach millions more premises, with discussions ongoing with strategic and financial partners.

Efficient and value accretive rollout economics 

By utilising the company’s fully-ducted network, which are the tubes through which fibre can be laid, the upgrade will be one of the UK’s most efficient fibre rollouts, costing ~£100 per premises passed. Customer installation costs will be in addition to this, with installs operated on an on-demand basis as rollout and revenue enhancement opportunities commence.

This compares to approximately ~£60 per premises for an upgrade to a full DOCSIS 4 cable network and eliminates the need to invest in future versions of DOCSIS as the demand for faster speeds and capacity continue to rise.

Total upgrade costs over the estimated seven-year life of the project will represent a modest annual increase to Virgin Media O2’s current capital expenditure budget of approximately £2 billion per year.  These expenditures do not adjust for any of the revenue benefits that are expected to accrue to Virgin Media O2’s consumer, enterprise and wholesale businesses from the FTTP upgrade. SHARE

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