People mostly are not watching more or higher-bandwidth video.
Video is about 70% of traffic,
Ergo: Unless something crazy happens, traffic will only grow moderately.
I’ve been reporting falling traffic growth rates for years but the 2021 OECD 15% growth still startled me. The likely explanation: people have run out of time to watch more video. In fact, hours watching has actually gone down.
Ferran Vilaro and NPAW report:
- Daily VoD consumption per user saw a 11% dip in the first half of 2022.
- Daily Linear TV consumption per user and service saw an 18% decline
- Avg. Bitrate grew globally by a more moderate 3% in H1 2022 vs. H1 2021
- Avg. Bitrate for VoD is increasing at a slower pace than before, and even going down in some regions
- Much more at https://blog.npaw.com/hubfs/Reports/NPAW%20Video%20Streaming%20Industry%20Report%20H1%202022.pdf
In an increasingly saturated market, even the biggest industry players
are starting to feel the effects of increased competition and the finite
nature of the consumers’ time. Daily playtime per user and service
continues to fall across VoD and Linear TV,Ferran G. Vilaró
CEO & Co-Founder of NPAW
Video is 71% of traffic at Comcast and I believe worldwide. As services grew and people watched more, network traffic rose in turn. At first, the iPhone and its successors changed the world and total traffic increased 100%/year. That only lasted a few years, then growth rates tapered off to 50-60% and then 40-50%. Before the pandemic, some rates were below 30%.
Don’t shoot the messenger.