5G Phones: 2019 China $470-700 2020 West: $400-? 2020 China $300

Update Jan 10: Xiaomi is now shipping the US$285 Redmi K30 5G, months before that price was expected. Previously: Nine companies are competing in a 5G market that has room for 4 or 5. In 2020, the difference in 5G and 4G manufacturing costs will fall to US$15-35 per phone. 150 million 5G subscribers in China will drive economies of scale in 2020. See the chart of 5G phone prices at

Result: 5G phone prices are plummetting. That will continue and is central to any analysis of the 5G future.

Some implications:

There is a tipping point where the price difference is so modest, 5G is the right choice for anyone able to spend a few hundred dollars for a phone. 5G will cover half of China in 2020, much of Europe and the US 2021-2022.

If I were spending US$400 or more for a phone, I would buy a 5G model not likely to become obsolete soon, if prices had come down in my country. In China in 2020, most willing to pay $300 will go 5G. China Mobile is confident 150M of the ~400M phones sold in China in 2020 will be 5G.

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5G Phones Will Keep Getting Cheaper

In 2020, the difference in 5G and 4G manufacturing costs will fall to US$15-35 per phone. Xiaomi in January is offering a decent 5G phone for $285. The 4G version is only $55 less.

Huawei and Samsung, who make their own parts and have enormous volume, will have an advantage. Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo believe their prices must be especially aggressive or they will lose market share.

As the price goes down, more people will choose 5G over 4G phones. In the fall of 2019, a third of Korean sales have been 5G phones, as the carriers are using subsidies to bring down the price. LG Uplus has been particularly aggressive, seizing what it considers a “once-in-a-decade” opportunity to gain share with 5G.

Although the first 5G phones cost about US$1,000, by October prices were down to $536 (Oppo) and $570 (Vivo). In January, Xiaomi will sell 5G for $285.Prices will continue to fall after that, although the $50-150 phones are still a while off.

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