34% Implosion in China April phone sales

One month may not mean anything, but the drop in China was so forecasts need a close reexamination. Phonemakers are reducing chip orders. Oppo has reduced 2021 estimates 20%. This may just be a blip, given supply issues and Covid. But the figure from the reliable CAICT is extreme. China is 20-25% of world phone...

Neville Ray

Chasing Neville Ray: VZ & T building but will be behind until 2024-2025

T-Mobile US is building the best 5G network in the West. He’s reached 125 million with an average speed of 300 Mbps down, using the golden 2.5 GHz spectrum acquired from Sprint. Year end 2021 will be 200 million. 2023 or 2024 will be a guaranteed 100 down 5G for 300 million, 90% of the...

Massive Apple 5G sales to push 2021 past 600 million 5G phones

Almost all estimates of 5G phone sales in 2021 are likely too low. Counterpoint reports the three bestselling phones in January were iPhone 12 models, all 5G. One analyst expects Apple to break records in 2021, selling 240-250 million phones, mostly 5G. ~80% of 5G was China until November 2020. Sales elsewhere took off with...

5G 700M China by December 2022

The trend is strong: China will likely reach 700 million actual 5G users late in 2022. Time to update forecasts; ZDNet quotes an analyst estimate of 675 million 5G in 2025. About 170 million 5G phones were sold in China, up from an unofficial 14 million in 2019. 27 million 5G phones sold in March...

Rural 5G solved: 60 MHz @700 shared network

The China Mobile/China Broadcast network has enough bandwidth will have enormous capacity, more than enough for likely demand for many years. Zhang Yunyong of China Unicom believes duplicating that network is wasteful. He made the request at China’s major political event, the Two Sessions. China Unicom’s main 5G network is a joint build with China...Continue reading

Need to Know: 5G: 10% performance, 0 new apps

20 Gbps and 1 ms latency is possible in the lab but a fever dream in the real world. At Verizon, the median speed of 5G is the same or less than 4G. The latency is rated at 30 ms, little better than most 4G. Even on the better 5G networks, delivering 150-400 Mbps downloads,...

250M 5G Subscribers End 2020 150M Q3

230-250 million 5G yearend as phone prices fall to US$199-260. 5G subscriber numbers are exploding. 100-120 million 5G phones will sell in Q4, many of them Apples. China will add at least 50 million. 70% of the phones selling in China are 5G and likely over 90% by mid-2021. I’m reworking my 2021 & 2022...

5G Need to Know: Sales exploding, performance poor, 0 new apps

147 million subs September 2020, 117 million in China. Yearend likely 230-250 million, including 30-50 million iPhone 12. Decent 5G phones cost US$200-250 in China, with 6.5″ screens and multiple cameras. As China prices move West, 2021 will blow out. Forget gigabit speeds and 1 ms latency. Mid-band speeds mostly 100-400 Mbps. Low-band typically 50-100...

562,656 Koreans go back to 4G

5G has so few practical uses that half a million Koreans have gone back to 4G. The saving is modest; otherwise, millions would have gone back. 4G speeds averaged over 50 Mbps in 2019. 4G is probably much faster today. 5G averages 300 Mbps across about a third of the country. So what? What can...

Need to know: Real 5G speeds and spectrum (3 minute read)

Takeaway: 95+% of 5G is lowband (< 1800 MHz or mid-band (2500-4200 MHz.) Asia, TMobile US, and much of Europe is mid-band.80-200 MHz of spectrum usually delivers 100-400 Mbps. Low-band (AT&T, much of DT & other European, runs at 4G speeds and sometimes lower. See AT&T data below.Millimeter wave often does 500 Mbps and a...Continue reading

Need to Know: 5G Spectrum – Think mid-band

Takeway: Decent 5G until around 2025 will be mostly mid-band, 2500-4200 MHz. Frequencies lower than 2100 MHz essentially deliver 4G capacity. Millimeter wave, 20 GHz and above, can deliver gigabits but will be rare until the middle of the decade or later. It’s expensive, and the carriers don’t see much market. Heretical but true: 5G...Continue reading

Primary: Cost per bit of wireless is falling at a ferocious rate

Even experts are skeptical that Verizon’s cost per bit is falling at 40-50% per year, but I’ve confirmed it to my satisfaction. Three well-established datapoints: Traffic was growing at 60-80% per year and only now is growth falling below 40% Capex has been flat to down Speeds have been going up consistently and congestion is...Continue reading

China is > 70% of 5G as subs pass 80M

At the end of June 2020, China had ~65 million 5G phones, Korea 7.5 million, the U.S. 5-6 million, and the rest of the world perhaps 4 million. In June 2019, Minister Miao Wei told the giant Chinese telcos “accelerate” and the results are extraordinary. China has upgraded 415,000 base stations and are adding 15,000...

US Q2 5G 4-5 million. Year-end 15-25 million

According to Ken Hyers at Strategy Analytics, 3.4 million 5G phones shipped in Q1 in the U.S. and 2.7 million in Q2. Stores were closed and promotion limited. Some of the 6.1 million shipped were in transit or store inventory, hence the total of 5-6 million plus (modest) carryover from 2019. Update August 10 M...

June 2020 H1 5G subscribers 84M (82M-92M)

210 million 5G yearend as phone prices fall to US$199-260. 5G use is exploding. At the end of June, China had ~65 million 5G phones, Korea 7.35 million, the U.S. 4-5 million, and the rest of the world perhaps 4 million. 5G fixed wireless added perhaps 4 million more. As Chinese phone prices (US$199-260) reach...

5X Advance for Africa with Massive MIMO, Spectrum

In 2014, Stanford Professor Paulraj told me MU MIMO would be the most effective way to deliver the capacity Africa needed. In 2016, the first Massive MIMO systems were deployed by Softbank Japan and China Mobile. The results were excellent. Softbank reported “up to a 10X improvement.” Huang Yuhong of China Mobile told me 3X...

Our analysis

5G: The Facts and the Future is probably the best current review publicly available. It’s free. 60 pages, loaded with data and projections. No hype. Worldwide coverage, updated weekly. tl;dr unless you’re really interested in wireless. 80M 5G subscribers in Q2, 100M August prove 5G is real. (August 18)China is > 70% of 5G as...Continue reading

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