2020-2021: Networks Doing Fine in the Time of Corona

Amazingly, there have been close to zero reports of additional traffic causing important problems for people at home. The networks are successfully handling 20-50% traffic increases while still staying fast enough for almost all practical purposes. Traffic has now plateaued and speeds improving weekly. Median landline download speeds in 90% of U.S. cities were within...Continue reading

Start Here: The Economy is Worse Than Almost Anyone Believes

2008-2009, the worst economic crisis in almost a century, saw a fall of US GDP of ~4%. This time will almost certain be worse, with many predicting a drop of ~10%. That’s uncertain, but a severe drop has already occured and 2021 also looks weak. Any analysis, including my work on 5G and telecom, has...

Coronavirus Matters – But Numbers are Uncertain

The best epidemiologists are not sure when the pandemic will be controlled. That makes it impossible to provide an accurate estimate of the effect on telecom and 5G. If production gets back to normal by the end of Feb, the natural drop in 5G subs will be 10-15 million. I’ve reduced my “surprise-free” 2020 projection...Continue reading

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