Analysis Branch
China Mobile lost half a million FTTH customers in December, 2021.
| Dec 2021 | Total: 240,106,000 | Change: -459,000 |
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As wireless gets better, more people will decide to go wireless-only. T-Mobile tests at 50 Mbps up, 90 Mbps down at my house, much faster than cable on the upstream. I’d like to switch. That;s more than enough speed for 95% of people who are not heavy downloaders.
US landline broadband will almost certainly decline over the next 5 years.
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AT&T and Verizon have said publicly their cost per bit is going down 40% per year. (Confirmed and fact-checked.) Traffic growth is down, often below 30% and falling.
Result: Misery.
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Starry is a Boston ISP that is claiming a going public value of $1.5 billion on 48,000 subscribers. That’s about 1% of the homes passed. They’ve spent over $200 million.
Its implicit business proposition is that about 1 in 5 cable homes will switch to wireless in the next five years and that a substantial share will choose Starry over T-Mobile, Verizon, and others.
I originally wrote “That’s about as likely as MySpace reclaiming the #1 position in web music.”
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