230-250 million 5G yearend as phone prices fall to US$199-260.
5G subscriber numbers are exploding. 100-120 million 5G phones will sell in Q4, many of them Apples. Samsung is also selling 5G aggressively in Europe and the U.S. China will add at least 50 million. 70% of the phones selling in China are 5G and likely over 90% by mid-2021.
I’m reworking my 2021 & 2022 estimates, which were already among the highest in the world. Nearly half the phones sold in the US, UK, and Australia are iPhones, most of which will be 5G from now on.
As Chinese phone prices (US$199-260) reach the West, most people will choose to buy 5G. Apple is selling 5G at the same price as 4G. Other companies will bring down the premium and it will make sense for all but the poor to choose 5G.
See 5G Phones $199-260 including screenshots of phones on sale at jd.com.
“5G still doesn’t have any use cases,” writes top Wall Street analyst Craig Moffett. 5G is of almost no practical use today but most people keep phones for about 3 years.
| 2020 Q2 | Q3 | Q4 est | |
| China | 72 | 117 | 170 |
| Korea | 7.35 | 9.3 | 11 |
| US | 5.5 | 8.5 | 26 |
| Japan | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Taiwan | 0.7 | ||
| Australia | 0.3 | 1 | |
| Europe | 6 | 25 | |
| Gulf | 1.5 | 3 | |
| Rest of world | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| 89.25 | 147.4 | 246.2 |
Analysis Branch and our reporting date back to 1999, when Dave Burstein started covering broadband from its very beginnings. Since then, we’ve had the chance to learn from hundreds of the best industry and academic leaders. Jennie Bourne and Dave have written two books, been quoted by the WSJ, NY Times, & Washington Post, spoken at Columbia University, chaired 8 conferences, and traveled the world looking for news.
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