The U.S. 5G market is T-Mobile’s to lose. The golden 2.5 GHz Sprint spectrum will give T-Mobile the best network in 40-60% of the U.S. over the next 4-9 months. Speeds will typically be 100-300 Mbps, occasionally higher. Verizon may have triple the speed in their millimeter wave network, but that’s only in about 10% of the U.S.

Currently, most U.S. 5G networks are lousy, but 3.4 million 5G Samsung Galaxy phones sold in Q1. That’s far more than I expected. Verizon expects explosive sales when the iPhone 5G ships. 30 million U.S. 5G phones in 2020 are possible, but I don’t have enough data.

DT CEO Timotheus Höttges just said he wants to be #1 in the U.S. If he gives Neville Ray the budget to build and Mike Sievert the marketing budget, his chances are good.  

Verizon and AT&T in most of the country will be using low band spectrum. AT&T has already deployed “low-band 5G” (850 MHz) which AT&T VP Gordon Mansfield confirms is often no better than their 4G. Open Signal found actual speeds of 62 Mbps, slower than most of AT&T’s own upgraded 4G cells. (Chart below.) That can quickly be deployed using dynamic spectrum sharing, which is reaching the field.

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